Why the USMNT Is Likely to Face a Group B Team in the Round of 32

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is still a few years away, but the conversation around the US Men's National Team's path to glory is already heating up. With the tournament expanding to 48 teams, the knockout stage will now feature a Round of 32 for the first time since 1986. And if the latest projections hold, the USMNT's first opponent in that round is likely to come from Group B.

The New World Cup Format

For 2026, the World Cup will feature 12 groups of four teams each. The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, will advance to the Round of 32. This means the knockout bracket will be larger and more unpredictable than ever before. The host nations—the United States, Canada, and Mexico—are automatically placed in Group A, Group B, and Group C respectively, though the exact assignments haven't been finalized. Based on tradition and seeding, the United States is most likely to be in Group A as the lead host.

Why Group A Matters

Under the standard World Cup knockout bracket that FIFA has historically used, the winner of Group A typically faces the runner-up of Group B in the first knockout round. While the 2026 bracket might see minor adjustments, the principle remains: a top-of-the-table finish in Group A sets up a date with the second-best team from Group B. Given the USMNT's status as a co-host and their rising talent pool, they are strong favorites to win their group—especially with a supportive home crowd in venues like SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and MetLife Stadium in New York. That would mean a Round of 32 opponent from Group B, which could include a European power or a South American giant, depending on the draw.

What It Means for the USMNT

For Gregg Berhalter's squad, this path offers both opportunity and challenge. A group stage victory would likely avoid a top seed from another confederation in the opening knockout round, but Group B could still contain a tricky opponent—think a Nigeria or a Serbia. The key is that the USMNT controls their own destiny: win Group A, and they'll face a team that finished second in its own group, which is statistically easier than facing a group winner. However, the expanded format also means more games and more fatigue. The Round of 32 adds an extra layer to the tournament, and the USMNT must be prepared to manage squad rotation and fitness.

Looking Ahead

This bracket setup is a genuine opportunity for the USMNT to make a deep run. Avoiding a group winner in the first knockout round could help them reach the Round of 16 and beyond—a feat they haven't achieved since 2014. But it all starts with taking care of business in Group A. If they do, a familiar foe from Group B awaits. The countdown to 2026 has begun, and the USMNT's road to glory may run straight through the runner-up of Group B.